Five years ago - on March 18, 2015 - Bill Gates had a single thing in mind. Today, all the predictions he made then have come true. In a single day:
Gates posted on his GatesNotes page the article "We're not ready for the next epidemic."
He published an op-ed in The New York Times entitled "How to Fight the Next Epidemic."
Published an article in the New England Journal of Medicine: "Gates B. The Next Epidemic - Lessons From Ebola."
And went to Vancouver to host a TED Talk. Title: ?The next pandemic? We're not ready. "
Within the same day, on different platforms, Gates delivered the same message: Chances are we will face a viral epidemic and we will not be prepared. For example, here's how he started his TED talk.
?When I was little, we were worried about nuclear war.
...
Today, if 10 million people are killed, they will be killed by a highly contagious virus. Not the shells but the germs will kill us.
We have invested tremendous numbers to prevent a nuclear war, but nothing to stop the epidemics. We are not ready for the next epidemic. ?
Gates is not a doctor. But it is the philanthropist who has donated the most to public health ($ 100 million for the study of coronavius since January, before being taken seriously around the world).
Also, since Gates knew what he was talking about in 2015, people want to know what he thinks now.
Last week, Gates answered 31 questions on Reddit. GatesNotes posted a formatted, shortened version of questions and answers. You can read the full transcript, but the key points were these.
1.We reached this point: "There was no funding."
Gates says the reason the pandemic caught us by surprise is because we had not set aside funds and resources to prepare.
"No one knew the likelihood of a new virus," Gates writes. "But we knew it was going to happen sooner or later and we didn't receive any funding."
2. What to do now: Test and distance yourself from others.
Afterwards, Gates says the same thing as the experts.
"Follow the rules set for staying home and not moving around to reduce the spread," he said, despite the "severe economic damage" this situation would cause.
He adds that if developed countries follow this strategy, "Within 2-3 months they will have avoided high levels of infection." In answering another question, Gates predicts a similar time period: "Six to ten weeks, this situation will only end if governments test and block traffic."
The risk is even greater in developing countries, where distancing is more difficult and "the capacity of hospitals is less."
3. Next: Remember and Invest
Go back to what Gates said five years ago: We need to take these risks very seriously, and we must fund the fight against them just as we would fund the fight against a state.
Even when the crisis is resolved, do not think that it will never happen again.
"In my speech in 2015, I talked about exactly that," Gates said. ?We need to be able to diagnose, treat and vaccinate quickly. We need to fund more so that medicine has the capacity to produce for the whole world. ?
