When we check the weather app, we see a forecast, and if rain is expected, we see a percentage. However, it happens that this percentage is misinterpreted.
If you've ever found yourself confused by the meaning of rain percentage in the app, this article is here to help.
A viral video on TikTok claimed that rain percentage doesn't actually predict how likely it will rain, or how much rain will fall during the day, but it predicts how much of a given area is expected to rain. So, if you read [Tirana, 40% rain] it means that there will be rain in 40% of the surface of Tirana. However, weather forecasting is not that simple.
Meteorologists are not always sure if it will rain. Some calculate the probability of precipitation (PoP) using a simple formula: PoP = C x A. Where "C" represents the confidence a meteorologist has that rain will occur in the forecast area, and "A" represents the percentage of areas where they expect it to rain.
So if there is a 50% chance of rain in 80% of a given area, the probability of rain becomes 40%.
Often, meteorologists measure PoP as the chance of rain at any given point in the area they cover during a given time period.
What does this mean for us? It probably doesn't mean much. If you're planning an outdoor event, you'll probably prepare the same way, regardless of how you interpret the rain percentage. If you see 80%, it would be good to postpone the event and if it is 20%, you can continue with the party.
