Scientists studying the new coronavirus are uncertain at warmer spring temperatures will slow the spread of the virus. It is too early to know if this virus will fade with the end of the flu season.
The coronavirus family consists of twelve viruses, but only seven affect humans. Four cause cooling, while others are young, deadly, and are thought to have been taken by night bats and gametes. The new virus has been labeled SARS-CoV-2 and the disease that causes COVID-19.
The idea that summer can prevent a pandemic is tempting. Influenza viruses that cause flu or cold tend to be mild during the warmer months because these types of viruses have "seasonality." However, it is not known for sure whether SARS-CoV-2 will react in the same way. Those who are studying the disease say the study is still in the early stages of understanding the virus will respond to warming weather.
"I hope for seasonality, but it's hard to say for sure," said Stuart Weston, a researcher at the University of Maryland, where the virus is being studied daily.
At the time of writing, 80,000 people have been confirmed infected in 34 countries. Experts say the disease will most likely continue to spread.
Researchers explain by some theories the duration of the flu season from October to April or March. Some think it is the result of enclosed spaces - to combat the cold, people are locked inside and human-to-human transmission becomes simpler.
Also, during the winter, dry air helps viruses travel longer and not get damaged as they pass from one person to another. Also during the winter, dry air dries out the nasal mucus that becomes less effective at blocking viruses.
Ian Lipkin, director of the Center for Infection and Immunity at Columbia University, says sunlight, which is less in winter, helps dissolve viruses on the surface. "Ultraviolet light dissolves nucleic acid. It somehow sterilizes surfaces, ?he says.
Although coronavirus and influenza are both respiratory infections, not enough is known about SARS-CoV-2 to predict whether there will be seasonality.
To get more information, researchers are analyzing similar viruses like SARS and MERS. SARS, which began spreading in late 2002, has 90% DNA similar to the current virus. The SARS outbreak began in November and lasted until July. It may have been seasonal, may have been banned in July due to human efforts.
MERS began circulating in September 2012 in Saudi Arabia, where temperatures are generally high. Unlike SARS, MERS was never completely controlled and new cases are reported. There is no irrefutable evidence of seasonality in MERS.
Weston, from the University of Maryland, says their lab is working on developing a vaccine and developing treatments. However, the vaccine may be ready for wide use after a year or more.
However, Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch is of the opinion that warming temperatures will not slow the spread of coronavirus. Cases with COVID-19 have been documented worldwide, and if the virus is a typical flu virus, it will worsen in the southern hemisphere, where autumn is in the early days.
Adapted from National Geographic
