Much of the panic we feel at the moment is explained by the uncertainty and lack of anticipation. You can't foresee an earthquake, but an aftermath, it looks like yes.
Enes Veliu, a lecturer in Civil Engineering at UPT for seven years, used the Modified Omor Law to predict the magnitude 6.4 earthquake aftershocks of November 26. First, the Law of Omor states that the frequency of aftershocks decreases reciprocally with the time elapsed after the major earthquake. In other words, over time, the aftereffects decrease.
According to the model adapted from Veliu, approximately 300 post-projections greater than three and approximately four post-projections greater than five are predicted.
?A Forecast of the Earthquake with Me = 6.4.
the prediction was made based on Modified Omori La and the parameters of a model adapted for Italy, Lolli and Gasperini (2003). From this model it results that approximately 300 earthquakes with Larger than 3 are projected and approximately 4 earthquakes with Larger than 5. While the model estimates that M greater than two will occur thousands of times.
PS: For this study I was inspired by a similar study on the Durres earthquake, done by a professor in Naples, Iunio Iervolino. The professor had considered Me = 6.5, while He was more factual at 6.4 and which currently has an effect on estimating the number of aftermaths, ?the lecturer writes on Facebook.
Since the November 26 earthquake, many others have fallen, with three of them estimated at magnitudes greater than five.
However, the formula explains the statistical behavior of the aftermath; the time, figures and locations of the aftermath are random, but always according to this rule.
