Best Picture? Best Actress? This Movie Is Getting Instant Oscar Predictions

Photo: "Bougonia"

After its premiere at the Venice Film Festival, "Bugonia" has received excellent reviews, with a 91% score on Rotten Tomatoes and strong initial chances in several different Oscar award categories.

Yorgos Lanthimos: From "weird Greek director" to big Hollywood

In the past decade, Yorgos Lanthimos has gone from being a provocateur of the “Greek Wave” to one of Hollywood’s most decorated directors. With “The Favourite” (10 Oscar nominations, one win for Olivia Colman) and “Poor Things” (11 nominations, four wins including Best Actress for Emma Stone), Lanthimos is back in the Oscar conversation with “Bugonia.”

The darkly satirical comedy, a remake of the Korean film "Save the Green Planet!" (2003), is about two conspiracy theorists (Jesse Plemons and Aidan Delbis) who kidnap a corporate CEO (Emma Stone) into believing she's an alien plotting to destroy humanity. Blending satire, science fiction, and Yorgos Lanthimos' signature quirky style, "Bugonia" is already stirring up debate over whether the Academy will accept it as it did with "Poor Thing" or whether it will find it too unusual for mainstream voters.

"Bugonia"'s Oscar chances

Best movie

Bugonia enters the Best Picture race in a solid position, currently ranked fifth out of 10 possible candidates.

After the huge success of "The Favourite" and "Poor Things," it's easy to forget last year's less awards-worthy film, "Kinds of Kindness" (also starring Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons), and assume that Lanthimos is back on the Oscar trail.

The enthusiastic response at Venice and the high ratings suggest that "luck" is with them this time. The only question, as always with Lanthimos, is whether his originality will broaden the Academy's tastes or alienate more traditional voters.

Best Director

With two previous nominations in this category (and five in total), Lanthimos is in good position to earn a third nomination for “Bugonia.” The enthusiasm from Venice strengthens his chances, especially if voters see the film as a bold artistic vision rather than just an eccentric experiment.

Best Actress

After her second Oscar win for "Poor Things," Emma Stone is back in the running. Her role as a would-be alien may not seem traditional for the Academy, but with four nominations in the last decade, it's clear that voters really like her. A passionate performance and a strong campaign could easily land her in the top 5. She currently sits in sixth place.

Best Actor

Plemons, first nominated in 2022 for "The Power of the Dog," is receiving strong reviews for his role as the obsessed conspiracy theorist. Placed outside the top 5, he's a dark horse who could become one of the surprises of the season if "Bugonia" continues to receive rave reviews.

Best Adapted Screenplay

This is the most promising category for “Bugonia.” Six-time Emmy winner Will Tracy collaborated with Jang Joon-hwan, the writer and director of the original “Save the Green Planet!” to reimagine it for a new audience.

The result is being praised by critics as "crazy and sharp." Given the Academy's history of rewarding bold screenplays, this could be the surest path to an Oscar for "Bugonia." Lanthimos' previous projects nominated for screenplay include "The Lobster," "The Favourite" and "Poor Things."