On a Sunday afternoon of September 21st, Durres, Tirana and the surrounding villages were shaken. A 5.8 magnitude earthquake pulled everyone on the road. Our country is a seismic country, but the earthquake of this magnitude we had not encountered for at least the last two decades. We were told by Albanian seismologists that the worst had passed and we would already have to endure the after-shocks until the earth stabilized. It more or less made it a natural earthquake process, and we more or less believed it, even though we felt the post-shock (we are post-shocking Albanian) for a long time. By the time we arrived at the dawn of November 26, when an even stronger earthquake of magnitude 6.4 shook not only Albania but also the Balkans, it left about 600 people dead and 8. It was of course no way it was a post-shock. This was a shocking earthquake. You don't need to study the science of geology to understand that the earth not only did not stabilize, but was hiding even greater stress. But is this possible? And will there be others?
Until the earthquake and after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami that claimed the lives of 274,000 people, more or less scientists were sure there was only a logical flow of earthquakes: A large earthquake followed by small ones.
Ross Stein, a geophysicist at the US Geological Survey in the US, says that after the tsunami and the two major earthquakes in Chile and Japan, (2010 and 2011) seismologists received a new lesson: Earthquakes following a powerful earthquake are not just earthquakes until in its complete calm; those shocks could trigger other earthquakes. Take the examples of Chile and Japan ?Although these earthquakes were devastating, they are still considered lucky in our language because they did not target major cities like Tokyo or Santiago. But now these two cities may be at greater risk that small post-earthquakes have transmitted stress to other seismic zones closer to the cities. And this is bad news for the future. "
In the case of Albania, the two powerful earthquakes had the same epicenter: Durres. Pretty much the same situation as in Southern California on July 4, 2019. Only that the first 6.4 earthquake and the second 7.2 earthquake were nearly 36 hours apart. In Albania, 2 months and 5 days.
"The movement of land that occurs during a major earthquake creates tension in the surrounding area. Earthquakes are the way Earth releases tension, ?explains Susan Hough, a seismologist at the US Geological Survey. That is to say, in Albania, rather than quakes, by re-spreading the tension in the Earth's crust, triggered another larger one.
"Today's scientific measurements are sophisticated and we have already realized that there is potential for some earthquakes to come from a single area," explains Hough.
Albania is a seismic country, but for 1 year, it seems like our land is getting too tight; before the earthquake that hit the center of the country (and which is of course bigger news), successive earthquakes have struck and continue to hit the Korça area almost every week. If you look at the Earthquake app, except Durres and Korça, these days the epicenters of light earthquakes have been Vlora or Fier. All these are stresses on the Earth even though none of the Albanian seismologists have ever explained to us whether the stress created in the Korça area before the 9/11 earthquake has anything to do with it in the Adriatic and whether this pressure will be transmitted to areas as well. others in the future.
Meanwhile after the September 21 earthquake, small earthquakes have not stopped. During November 25 alone, there were 5 with the highest magnitude of 3.5. On the morning of November 26 until the most powerful earthquake of 6.4, 5 more were recorded by this application and by the time of this article (11:45) 40 smaller earthquakes have hit the country. the mighty 5.5 brow.
Will there be other earthquakes so powerful?
Greek seismologist Akis Selenis assured ABC Neva that this was the most powerful earthquake and there would be no others of this magnitude. But it said there would be 5.5 earthquakes in the after-shock.
Susan Hough says the chances of two powerful earthquakes occurring one after the other are 1 in 20. But again, the possibility exists, as we tried it on our backs.
Despite the rare cases and the kindness of the Greek seismologist, Hough adds that "earthquakes cannot be predicted anyway. ?It's just like the weather. You cannot predict the weather with 100% certainty that it will rain until it starts to fall. This also happens with earthquakes. ?
Are seismologists working for us, further on?
Ross Stein says there is good news for seismologists when there are two powerful earthquakes one after another. "The behavior and frequency of small post-earthquake large earthquakes could give scientists an opportunity to calculate the chances of a large two-magnitude earthquake, with more precision than the original earthquake would have predicted.
But Stein works at a very powerful institution like the US Geological Survey, and we don't know what our seismologists have the capacity and capabilities to do such calculations. If they cannot, then as a seismic country we are, investment in this area should become a priority.
What about us?
By making a rough estimate of the Sept. 21 earthquake shocks that followed until today, then we expect perhaps over 300 more shocks and a few more months of increased vigilance and paranoia. If we are to refer to scientists, we can call this November 26 earthquake the last in the cycle of great shocks this fall 2019. But anyway, if we are to refer to scientists again, we cannot predict the future. But while living in a seismic zone, at least we should not forgive ourselves for not being informed about how to guard our heads and be ready for any occasion.
"It's normal to be afraid," says Hough, "but on the other hand we have to be prepared."
